How we measure tension
We want you to understand every number on this site. Nothing here is a prediction, and nothing is a chance of war. Data refreshes every 30 minutes.
Global Tension Index
A number from 0 to 100 that shows how today's world news compares with the last 90 days. It uses the GDELT Project, which monitors news worldwide and reports what share of all coverage matches a topic each day. For each indicator we ask: "on what share of the last 90 days was coverage lower than today?" That gives a score from 0 to 100. The index is the weighted average.
| Indicator | GDELT search | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Armed conflict in the news | (war OR airstrike OR missile OR shelling OR troops OR "military strike") | 45% |
| Military build-up and drills | ("military drills" OR warships OR "fighter jets" OR "air defense" OR mobilization OR "troop buildup") | 30% |
| Nuclear threats in the news | ("nuclear weapons" OR "nuclear strike" OR "nuclear threat" OR "nuclear war") | 25% |
Bands: 0–25 Low, 26–50 Elevated, 51–75 High, 76–100 Severe. Formula version v2-gdelt. When we change it we publish a new version.
What it cannot tell you: it measures news attention, not danger. A long crisis can drift back towards "normal" as the news gets used to it, and a sudden story pushes it up fast. Read it together with your country status and official advice.
Country status levels
- Calm: No direct threat. Normal life.
- Watch: Tension nearby. Stay informed, check your basics.
- Prepare: Credible risk. Finish your kit and family plan.
- Act: Official alert. Follow your authorities now.
Each tracked country gets a level from fixed rules, with the reasons shown:
- UK Foreign Office travel advice (official): advice against all travel to the whole country suggests Prepare; against all but essential travel to the whole country, or all travel to parts of it, suggests Watch.
- GDACS disaster alerts (UN and European Commission): a red alert in the country suggests Prepare; an orange alert suggests Watch.
- News coverage: a country named in 10 or more conflict headlines in 48 hours, or a neighbour that is, suggests Watch. News alone never raises a country above Watch.
- Otherwise Calm. If your own government issues an alert, follow it: it always comes first.
Hotspots and news
We read the world news feeds of BBC News, Al Jazeera, DW, The Guardian, NPR, France 24, Euronews, Sky News, CBC, ABC News (Australia), Dawn and Yonhap, plus official updates from UN News and the IAEA (the UN nuclear watchdog), keep stories from the last 48 hours that are about armed conflict or military tension, remove duplicates, and count which countries they name. Headlines and summaries are the publishers' own, and every item links to the original.
Country guidance
"What your government recommends" comes only from official government sources, each fact linked to its source. If a government has not published something, we say so instead of filling the gap. See all sources.